The RMB exchange rate in 2025 concluded with a trend of "weak at first, then strong, with narrowing fluctuations," approaching the 7.0 mark against the US dollar by the end of the year, reaching a 14-month high. As a core raw material in the textile industry chain, polyester yarn's price fluctuations are always closely linked to exchange rate changes—from raw material import costs to export competitiveness, this macroeconomic variable, the exchange rate, is influencing market pricing through multiple transmission mechanisms. This article analyzes the core logic of the RMB exchange rate's impact on polyester yarn prices, combining 2025 market data and industry dynamics.

Exchange Rate Trends: The "Weak to Strong" Main Theme of 2025

Looking back at 2025, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar experienced three key stages: from the beginning of the year to April, it fluctuated and weakened to around 7.35, dragged down by the Fed's hawkish policies and Sino-US tariff pressure; from April to July, it appreciated rapidly to 7.16 as trade tensions eased; after July, it entered a moderate appreciation channel, steadily rising to around 7.07 by the end of the year. Behind this trend are the combined effects of improved Sino-US trade relations, optimized foreign exchange supply and demand structure, and the repatriation of cross-border funds. Market expectations of a "first appreciation, then stabilization" of the RMB in 2026 further make exchange rate factors a crucial consideration for polyester yarn companies' decision-making.

Dual Transmission: The Core Path of Exchange Rate Impact on Polyester Yarn Prices

1. Raw Material Cost Transmission: Appreciation Reduces the Burden on Import-Dependent Enterprises

The core raw materials for polyester yarn, PTA and MEG, are petrochemical derivatives. my country has a high dependence on crude oil imports, so RMB appreciation directly reduces raw material procurement costs. The logic chain is clear: RMB appreciation → more foreign currency can be exchanged for the same amount of RMB → lower import costs for crude oil, PTA, and MEG → lower production costs for polyester yarn. As of December 26, 2025, the center price of 1.56*38 cotton-type polyester staple fiber was approximately RMB 6700/ton, and the price range for 21S pure polyester yarn reached RMB 9200-9300/ton. The strong price trend is supported by the cost benefits brought by exchange rate appreciation. For polyester companies primarily focused on domestic sales and with a high proportion of imported raw materials, this positive development effectively expanded profit margins and alleviated previous cost pressures.

2. Export Demand Transmission: Appreciation Weakens International Market Price Competitiveness

my country is the world's largest exporter of textiles and apparel. As a core raw material for downstream export products, polyester yarn demand is heavily influenced by exchange rates. When the RMB appreciates, the price of polyester yarn and finished textile products denominated in US dollars rises relatively, directly weakening its price advantage in the international market. Although my country's textile and apparel export data for 2025 is impressive, for polyester companies with a high export ratio, the appreciation of the exchange rate has already begun to put pressure on orders—some overseas buyers may turn to lower-cost markets such as Southeast Asia, or demand that domestic companies reduce prices to maintain price competitiveness. This potential change in demand has a certain restraining effect on polyester yarn prices, preventing excessive price increases due to cost reductions.

3. Market Expectation Transmission: Exchange Rate Trends Affect Inventory and Pricing Strategies

Exchange rate fluctuations not only affect immediate costs and demand but also guide corporate behavior through market expectations. The anticipated appreciation of the RMB in the second half of 2025 has increased the willingness of polyester yarn manufacturers to settle foreign exchange, leading to adjustments in their inventory strategies: upstream companies tend to lock in low-priced raw material inventories, midstream producers moderately control the pace of capacity release, and downstream textile mills adjust their procurement volumes based on anticipated export orders. This adjustment, based on exchange rate expectations, has further exacerbated short-term market supply and demand fluctuations. For example, the strong sales and rising prices of popular specifications such as 45S pure polyester yarn in December reflect companies' comprehensive assessment of costs and demand under future appreciation trends.

Corporate Response: Finding Certainty Amidst Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Faced with the interconnected changes in exchange rates and markets, companies across the polyester yarn industry chain have begun to adopt diversified strategies:

- Cost Side: Locking in import costs and exchange rate risks by signing long-term raw material supply agreements and utilizing foreign exchange hedging tools to avoid short-term fluctuations;

- Market Side: Export companies are optimizing pricing mechanisms, adopting RMB settlement or including exchange rate adjustment clauses in contracts, while expanding into emerging markets to reduce reliance on a single market; domestic companies are leveraging cost advantages and increasing product added value to hedge against demand uncertainties;

- Layout Side: Some leading companies are establishing factories overseas (such as setting up factories in Egypt to cover the European and African markets) to circumvent exchange rate fluctuations and trade barriers, achieving a global layout.

Outlook for 2026: Market Trends Under Moderate Exchange Rate Appreciation

Looking ahead to 2026, the core fluctuation range of the RMB against the US dollar is expected to be 6.80-7.15, with a continued moderate appreciation trend in the first half of the year. For the polyester yarn market, this means that the benefits on the raw material cost side will continue to be released, but price pressure on the export side will also exist simultaneously. In summary, polyester yarn prices will likely exhibit a fluctuating pattern supported by costs and constrained by demand, rather than experiencing a one-sided trend.

Exchange rate fluctuations are a normal occurrence in a market economy. For the highly market-driven polyester yarn industry, which also involves import and export, proactive adaptation is preferable to passive response. Only by accurately grasping the logic of exchange rate transmission and combining it with strategies to optimize their own business structure can companies stabilize their profitability amidst volatility and seize opportunities for industry transformation.